What's the Outlook for Travel Planning Right Now?

   Middle seats in the planes of some airlines are kept vacant.  Empty cruise ships are lined up at docks rather than plying oceans and rivers.   Some countries remain closed to non-residents, while others won’t allow people from the United States to enter. 

   Few aspects of everyday life have been hit harder by the Covid 19 pandemic than travel, and there’s no end in sight.  Or is there?

   It’s obvious that the kinds of trips many people take in the months ahead will be different, in some cases very different, than in the past.  A number of travel industry experts predict that not all of the changes will disappear as the virus does.

     There’s no denying the present state of affairs.  Many people who normally would be flying are loathe to set foot on an airplane.  Hotels are running well below capacity.  Travel over holidays, usually times of mass migration, has plummeted.

    According to CNN Business, “Airline traffic has plunged and it probably won’t recover any time soon.”   Stewart Chiron, a leading expert who is known as The Cruise Guy, has said the Covid 19 outbreak may be the worst blow the industry has ever suffered.

   But that doesn’t mean people seeking a temporary escape from home have no alternatives.  Let’s consider the current situation and short-term outlook, and gaze into a crystal ball to conjure up longer-term probabilities.

   Where to go.  While the borders of many countries have been closed, some have gradually or completely lifted travel bans – although perhaps not for people from the United States due to the high rate of infections here.  Even when they’re open to visitors from America,  there are safety regulations that must be followed, and some popular tourist sites have restricted access.   The first step in planning a possible trip should be to check the latest information for travelers.

    How to get there.  When Dr. Louis Meyers recently traveled from Burlington, Vermont to Washington, DC, rather than the direct flight he had taken in the past he was routed through Charlotte, North Carolina, and the ticket cost much more than in the past.  Higher fares, fewer direct flights and hassles getting through a number of airports are the new norm for air travel.

    According to a report on the SFGate website, these challenges aren’t likely to go away soon.  As a result, it predicts that for the foreseeable future a large percentage of of flyers will be “travelers with serious business on the other end.”

    Cruising is losing.  The Economist magazine forecasts that giant passenger ships will take a long time “to recover their appeal – if they ever do.”  Cruise lines are reluctant to cut fares because it’s difficult to increase them later without scaring off potential customers.  Even so, Jay Johnson of Coastline Travel Advisors in California says they may have no alternative in the short term, once they’re again able to get underway.

Large tour groups are gone for now.

    Going with a group.  TravelStride.com, a leading marketplace source for world-wide travel, notes that most tour companies have implemented safety guidelines and flexible cancellation policies, limited group sizes and taken other steps to keep people safe and healthy.  The organization’s website hosts more than 50,000 group tour packages, expedition cruises and independent itineraries.

   At this time, its experts recommend custom travel as an option which eliminates any concerns about going with a group.  The website includes a list of countries that are reopening for tourism, which is regularly updated.

    What lies ahead.  While it’s impossible to predict with 100 percent certainty how travel will evolve in the months, and years, ahead, there are some signposts which point to what’s likely to take place. 

    Many observers believe that airlines will offer fewer choices and charge higher fares.  Low-cost seat options may dwindle and passengers are likely to have limited alternatives for flight times, routes – and possibly companies.  The International Air Transport Association estimates that the industry won’t fully recover from the impact of Covid 19 until 2024.

A road trip close to home will a popular option this holiday season.

   Rather than heading for megaresorts, amusement parks and other popular vacation spots, more people probably will drive to a beach, the mountains or a lake that’s fairly close to home.  As a result, it’s likely that hotels and motels will enjoy an uptick in business.

   Early in November the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced that it was lifting the “no-sail” order it had imposed and will allow a phased-in return of passenger cruises.  In order to resume sailings, ship lines must take steps that include informing people of the potential risks caused by the pandemic, limiting voyages to a maximum of seven days, testing crew and passengers and mandating wearing masks and social distancing.  It probably will take some time for those protocols to be put in place.  

Packed cruise ships are a thing of the past.

    Even as consumer travel slowly increases, business-related trips may lag behind.  Robert Crandall, the former head of American Airlines, predicts that many companies currently conducting meetings and other tasks electronically rather than in person won’t return completely to their previous travel practices.

 The silver lining…

 Along with the near catastrophic situation that has impacted travel there are some bright spots on the horizon.  One relates to  negative effects that over-tourism has had on a number of destinations around the world.  The temporary reduction of visitors will give them a much-needed rest and an opportunity to recover.

    Furthermore, the many setbacks to travel caused by the pandemic have done nothing to dampen the penchant of Americans for vacation trips.  Michelle Gielan, a psychologist who heads the Institute for

Applied Positive Research, conducted a survey on the role of vacation journeys in people’s happiness quotient. 

   She reports that 97 percent of respondents said having a trip planned in the future makes them happier, and 80 percent said planning travel during the coming six months does so.  The potential kicker is that

96 percent replied that feeling safe during a trip is a high priority. 

    As travel gradually returns toward normal, more people will share the joy it can bring to life.  Hopefully that includes you.